Girish's Real Estate Market Observer - August '23 Edition

In the July ‘23 update, we delved into the shifting landscape of median sale prices and their interaction with interest rates for single-family homes in Contra Costa and Alameda counties combined. Despite a decline in the median sale price, the impact of rising interest rates has caused monthly payments to remain elevated. This month, our focus turns to the influence of inventory levels on buyer demand within these two counties. (Please don't hesitate to reach out if you require data for other Bay Area counties or cities – I'm here to assist.) Let's dive into the details, including figures and the accompanying graph.

 **Months of Inventory based on Pended Sales in July 2023: 1.2 Months**

- This marks a 33.1% increase when compared to the previous month.

- However, juxtaposed against last year's same month, it demonstrates a notable 37.6% decrease.

 

July 2023 experienced a surge in inventory compared to June 2023, offering buyers a slight respite. It's worth noting that July of this year witnessed an extraordinary 37.6% decline in inventory compared to July of the prior year. The conventional wisdom suggests that an escalation in interest rates should naturally dampen demand (a strategy that the Federal Reserve employs to influence the broader economy). However, the existing dearth of supply continues to fuel a heated market, ensuring buyers still grapple with multiple offers and competitive bidding wars. While the extended period of the Bay Area housing bull market since 2012 has seen intermittent lulls, the pent-up demand consistently regains momentum. This phenomenon was observed between July and December of the previous year when potential buyers hesitated on the sidelines following three consecutive interest rate hikes. Notably, most of these buyers resurfaced in January of the current year, overcoming their initial apprehensions and adjusting to the revised rates.

For a broader context, please examine the inventory levels dating back to 2018, a pivotal juncture at the outset of the housing bubble burst.

 

- A buyer's market entails more than 6 months of inventory, based on pended sales.

- Conversely, a seller's market is characterized by less than 3 months of inventory, per pended sales data.

Based on pended sales, a balanced or neutral market corresponds to a range of 3 to 6 months of inventory.

Remember that these parameters can exhibit variability across distinct geographical areas.

For any further inquiries or insights, do not hesitate to contact me. I remain at your disposal.

In examining the combined data for Alameda and Contra Costa County, Single Family Homes, it is evident that the median sale price has experienced a decline from $1.325 million in May 2022 to $1.135 million in May 2023.

However, contrary to what might be perceived as good news for buyers, the situation is not as favorable as it initially appears. The average 30-year fixed interest rate at the end of May 2022 stood at approximately 5%. This equated to a principal and interest (P&I) payment of $5,690 per month for a median-priced property ($1.325 million) with a 20% down payment. In contrast, today's median-priced property of $1.135 million, with an average interest rate of around 7% (roughly), would result in a higher P&I payment of $6,041 per month (calculated with 20% down).

When considering these figures, it becomes apparent that although the median sold price decreased by 14.3% from May of last year to May of this year, the monthly mortgage payment has increased by 6.2%. Consequently, prices today are higher than during the same period last year.

Nevertheless, there is a silver lining in the form of potential refinancing opportunities. As interest rates decrease, homeowners can refinance their mortgages, reducing their monthly payment burden while having already secured a property. Additionally, a decrease in interest rates tends to attract more prospective buyers.

In summary, despite the decline in the median sale price, the increase in monthly mortgage payments suggests that the current housing market conditions may not necessarily favor buyers. However, the possibility of refinancing and the potential for future lower interest rates could provide some relief and attract more buyers to the market by increasing the property values (assuming inventory does not increase substantially).

Girish Bangalore

DRE# 02067090

INTERO

(408) 420-0646

https://girishbangalore.agent.intero.com/2023/07/04/market-update-july-2023-alameda-and-contra-costa-counties-combined

Real Estate Market Post Shelter-In-Place

I have been conducting Zoom Webinar’s with a data-driven presentation giving insights into the current market, post Shelter-In-Place, comparing the scenario with 2008 and outlook for the future. I will be thrilled to have a one-on-one or group Zoom sessions with you and your friends and family, and it should take 45 – 60 mins and I will ensure that your time is well spent. Please reply to this email if you are interested so that I can schedule one for you.

Below is a graph of what’s happening in Contra Costa and Alameda counties Real Estate market combined, this is a graph of Supply (New Listings) and Demand (Pending sales), each data set is for two weeks starting with two weeks before Shelter-In-Place became effective, followed by Weeks 1-2, 3-4, 5-6 and 7-8 after Shelter-In-Place became effective. The following are the salient points that can be interpreted from the graph.

1. Both Supply and Demand came down significantly in the immediate two-week period post Shelter-In-Place, showing that the dramatic change in their lifestyle rattled buyers and sellers and anxious about the future
2. Supply started to go up immediately after the first two weeks and has continued to do so, indicating that Seller’s have overcome the initial anxiety and re-adjusted to the new situation, both personal and professional.
3. Though demand went down for a second consecutive two-week period, it jumped up significantly in the subsequent two two-week periods.
4. Both Supply and Demand are now inching up to the pre Shelter-In-Place numbers.

Many of you might have been aware that January and February of 2020 were brutal for buyers, with Supply being meager and buyers clamoring to buy the limited inventory, leading to a bidding war and significant overbidding. On average, during Jan-Feb of this year, I had a 20% acceptance rate of offers, multiple offers on all properties that I had submitted on behalf of my buyers (average of 10 offers per property), with a couple of homes getting 40+ offers. Properties that did not sell in 2019, subsequently taken off-market and then re-listed in Jan-Feb, were getting sold within a week. Overall, it was a tight market for buyers. With inventory still way low in Bay Area (2 months or less Supply where less than six months supply is considered a Seller’s market) and buyers coming back to the market as seen in the graph below, it is going to be very competitive for buyers if the trend continues.

I hope the above summary and the graph below gives you a proper perspective of today’s market. If you have any further questions or would like to set up a Zoom call on the complete market presentation, you may reply to this email, and I will be delighted to talk to you.

Bay Area RE Market Update - May 2019

Hello Friends,

My May market update is the blog post from Tom Tognoli, who is the co-founder and former CEO of Intero. Tom has gracefully consented to post his blog on mine and it aptly fits into my bi-monthly RE market update. A link is provided at the end of the article to Tom's own blog. Happy Reading. As always call me, text me or email me if you or anyone you know are in the market to buy or sell a property. Thank You!

Don't Freak: San Francisco Bay Area home prices fall for the first time in 7 years

May 16, 2019 First, don't freak out...it's old news. In Q1 of last year (2018) the Bay Area housing market went a bit crazy. Depending on where you live, it's like the real estate market got a jolt of adrenaline at the end of Q1 last year. Property values literally shot up 10% to 15% in 90 days. It was stupid and unsustainable. In Q2 of 2018, reality set in and property values gave most of that 90-day gain back in what seemed like a week. It needed to happen. It literally all happened in weeks, not months or years. It happened so quickly most people didn't even notice. Over the last year, property values have slowly ground their way up. Just not to those stupid prices of Q1 last year...yet. It was unhealthy. I will warn you now, you may see property values are down year over year again this month and maybe even again next month as well. Next, I predict we will see values flatten out year over year going into the summer. Then, we will see property values climb slowly in the second half of 2019. Again...don't freak...it's all normal. Well...Bay Area normal :) This is part of the reason I think last year was slower than some had hoped. We needed to get owners/sellers to come back to reality and that does not happen overnight. They held on to what their property was worth for a week or two in Q1 of 2018. That was not reality and if you were lucky enough to sell them, good for you. On the other hand, if you bought in that week, don't freak out. Real estate is all about the long game, not the short game. You will be fine and happy you purchased and own a home. Just think about that ridiculously low-interest rate you got! Better than the 12% I had to pay on my first loan back in '89. So, now what everyone wants to know...where do we go from here? I am blessed to be able to spend time with some pretty smart and amazing people. I use that opportunity to pick their brains and then mix it with what I know. Most people feel solid about the economy and the prospects for Bay Area real estate. I'm putting my money where my mouth is and have been putting my money to work in real estate with my business partners. It's hard to wrap your head around, but with all of the IPO's, the tech boom, low-interest rates, housing shortage, stock market grinding to new highs, commute traffic and more, I am still a buyer of Bay Area real estate. I don't see any significant changes in our market anytime soon. Ping me if you or anyone you know needs help, I know people :) And don't freak out! - Tom Tognoli Link to original Post: http://bit.ly/30mHZAm